NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of
several M-class events.  The largest was an east limb long duration
M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC.  The presumed source is
old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the
east limb on 02 December.  Other activity included numerous flares
from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak
M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718
(S07E30).  Three new regions were numbered today:  9722 (S16W19),
9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74).  The latter produced an M1/Sf
event at 01/1744 UTC.  None of today's activity appeared to produce
any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were
observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days.  Regions 9714, 9715
(N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear
capable of isolated major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field may
become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within
the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29
November are anticipated.  Activity is expected to be predominantly
unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal
hole possible late in the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 221
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  225/220/220
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  020/030-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/01