Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Dec 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
December 1, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Isolated C-class flares
occurred, with Regions 9246 (S12E04), 9242 (N21W28), and 9240
(N09W43) contributing. The nine spot groups on the disk were stable
or declining, as little of significance occurred. There was limb
activity associated with now-departed Region 9236 (N20). The East
Limb was quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 185
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.