NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Aug 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Aug 01 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9561 (S12E37) produced isolated B- and C-class subflares. This moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group remained the most active of the visible regions, but showed no significant changes during the period. No significant changes were observed in the remaining regions. New Regions 9564 (N14W40), 9565 (N04E22), and 9566 N17E63) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) active levels in response to coronal hole effects, which gradually decreased during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on the first day. Activity is expected to increase to mostly active levels during the final two days of the period following yesterday's filament disappearances. III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Aug 120 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 020/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 008/015-015/015-020/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/40 Minor storm 10/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/35/45 Minor storm 10/20/25 Major-severe storm 02/11/11
