Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Aug 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
August 1, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9561
(S12E37) produced isolated B- and C-class subflares. This
moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group remained the most
active of the visible regions, but showed no significant changes
during the period. No significant changes were observed in the
remaining regions. New Regions 9564 (N14W40), 9565 (N04E22), and
9566 N17E63) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) active levels in
response to coronal hole effects, which gradually decreased during
the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on the first day.
Activity is expected to increase to mostly active levels during the
final two days of the period following yesterday's filament
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 120
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  120/125/130
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  020/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  008/015-015/015-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/45
Minor storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    02/11/11

SpaceRef staff editor.