Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 April 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
April 1, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Apr 01 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  A Class M5 event
began at 01/1055 UT.  It has been associated with  energetic
post-flare type loops at the east limb near SE20.   Coronal mass
ejections have been numerous over the southeast limb, with the most
dynamic occurring in temporal association with the Class M5 flare. 
The CME appeared to clear the LASCO field of view in half the time
typical CME's require and appeared to extend from far south of the
equator to very far north.     Active Region 9393 (N15  W57) has
changed little.  It produced an impulsive Class M4 X-ray event
beginning at 01/1943 UT.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high.   Region 9393 (N15 W57) remains a probable source
of Class M and Class X Flares.   Other regions with high flare
potential among the dozen or so spotted active regions now visible
include Region 9408 (S10 W18),   9397 (S10 W35), and 9401 (N20 W40).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field declined to quiet levels by 01/0900 UT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a small chance of a minor
storm.   An energetic event in Region 9393 is likely to produce a
prompt solar proton event.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 258
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  235/225/205
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  115/155
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  027/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  020/035-012/020-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                28/28/28
Minor storm           18/18/18
Major-severe storm    17/12/08
B.  High Latitudes
Active                28/28/28
Minor storm           18/18/18
Major-severe storm    12/10/08

SpaceRef staff editor.