NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1 Apr 2002

:Issued: 2002 Apr 01 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only a few low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 9885 (N11E01) retains moderate sunspot area
but has simplified somewhat in magnetic complexity. Region 9887
(N01E24) continues to grow and develop. Region 9886 (N11E16) has
also grown.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9885, 9886, and
9887.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The field
remained under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels for the next 24 hours
becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 50/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 207
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 210/210/205
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 015/020-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01