NOAA SEC Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Sep 03 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A very gradual rise in X-rays began at 03/1545Z, peaking at the M1 level at 03/1716Z and ending at 1737Z. A long duration M2 event soon followed, peaking at 03/1841Z. No obvious optical source was apparent for either event. A C9 flare occurred at 03/0158Z associated with a Type II sweep and bright surge near S22 on the east limb. Region 9591 (S18W81) maintains a Delta configuration as it nears the west limb. New spot groups emerging just east of Region 9591 may add to this region's complexity. Region 9601 (N14W06) continues to maintain moderate complexity with near 700 millionths of white light area coverage and was the source of a number of small C-class flares. New Regions 9604 (S21W61), 9605 (S20E53), and 9606 (S17E57) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 maintain good potential for M-class flares and an isolated major flare. New spot development just east of Region 9591 further supports potential for significant activity near the SW limb. Activity on the SE limb suggests a region with some complexity will rotate into view the next day or so. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal hole stream and possibly some weak CME effects are producing the disturbed conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. Conditions will return to quiet to unsettled levels by days two and three. III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep Class M 75/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Sep 199 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 190/180/175 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 002/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 015/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/25/25 Minor storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01
