Status Report

NOAA SEC Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 Sep 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
September 3, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. A very gradual rise in
X-rays began at 03/1545Z, peaking at the M1 level at 03/1716Z and
ending at 1737Z. A long duration M2 event soon followed, peaking at
03/1841Z. No obvious optical source was apparent for either event. A
C9 flare occurred at 03/0158Z associated with a Type II sweep and
bright surge near S22 on the east limb. Region 9591 (S18W81)
maintains a Delta configuration as it nears the west limb. New spot
groups emerging just east of Region 9591 may add to this region's
complexity. Region 9601 (N14W06) continues to maintain moderate
complexity with near 700 millionths of white light area coverage and
was the source of a number of small C-class flares. New Regions 9604
(S21W61), 9605 (S20E53), and 9606 (S17E57) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 maintain good potential for
M-class flares and an isolated major flare. New spot development
just east of Region 9591 further supports potential for significant
activity near the SW limb. Activity on the SE limb suggests a region
with some complexity will rotate into view the next day or so.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A high
speed coronal hole stream and possibly some weak CME effects are
producing the disturbed conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active through day one with isolated
high latitude minor storm periods. Conditions will return to quiet
to unsettled levels by days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 199
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  190/180/175
90 Day Mean        03 Sep  158
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  002/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  015/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/25/25
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.