NOAA SEC Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 02 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9800 (N10W44)

produced the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf at 01/2120 UTC.

This region continues to show slow decay while retaining it’s

beta-gamma magnetic structure.  Region 9802 (S14W18) produced two

minor C-class flares during the period and has also shown some

slight decay in penumbral coverage.  However, the delta magnetic

configuration within the dominate intermediate spot remains intact.

Multiple Type III radio sweeps and a pair of radio bursts comprised

the rest of the recorded activity for the period.  New Regions 9811

(S27E83) and 9812 (N12W16) were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels.  Region 9802 has the potential to produce

M-class flare activity, possibly an isolated major flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels.

An isolated period of minor storm conditions occurred at 02/0600 –

0900 UTC.  This was preceded with a sudden impulse at the Boulder

magnetometer of 45 nT at 02/0558 UTC.  This transient is presumed to

be related to M3 x-ray flare that occurred in old Region 9787 at

31/1444 UTC.  The optical correlation for this flare was attained

using SOHO/EIT imagery, as this region had rotated beyond the west

limb.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for

isolated active conditions through day one of the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb

Class M    60/60/60

Class X    15/15/15

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Feb 241

Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  240/240/240

90 Day Mean        02 Feb 225

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  011/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  016/018

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  010/015-005/010-005/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01