Status Report

NOAA SEC Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Feb 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
February 17, 2002
Filed under ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 17 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9830
(S18E31) was the most active of the visible regions. It produced
occasional subflares as it grew at a gradual pace with increased
sunspot area and magnetic complexity. A magnetic delta configuration
may have developed within its leader spots. Region 9825 (N12W35)
continued to gradually decay and simplify. The remaining active
regions were unremarkable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9830.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Activity
increased to unsettled to active levels during 17/0300 – 0900 UTC
following a sudden impulse at 17/0257 UTC (13 nT, as measured by the
Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity decreased to quiet to
unsettled levels after 17/0900 UTC. This brief increase in activity
appeared to be the result of a weak CME passage.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 197
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 195/195/190
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 010/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.