NOAA SEC Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 13 Feb 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 13 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. There were several C-class
events during the past 24 hours; most of these were from Region 9825
(N14E16). The largest event was a C7/1n from 9825 at 0712 UTC.
Region 9825 has grown steadily and is now the largest group on the
disk. Region 9821 (S13W53) is now the second largest region but is
decaying and did not produce any flare activity. A CME was observed
in C2 from the southeast limb, beginning at 2030 UTC: the CME does
not appear to be earthward directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class
event, with Region 9825 being the main threat. There is a very
slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes were at moderate levels for a significant
fraction of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 204
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 210/210/205
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/010-010/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01