NOAA SEC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 4 Dec 2002

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2002 Dec 04 2200 UTC 



Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity fell to very low levels.  The largest
optically correlated event of the period was a B8/Sf flare from
Region 212 (N13E49) at 04/1632 UTC.  Regions 207 (S19W21) and 208
(N10E08) also produced B-class flares.  Region 208 retains some
magnetic complexity with mixed polarity in its leading spots.  No
new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels for the early part of the forecast period,
with a slight chance for isolated moderate flare activity.  Old
Region 191 (S18, L=203) is expected to return by 05 December, and
may increase the chance for moderate flare activity by the end of
the forecast period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
period observed at high latitudes during 04/1500-1800 UTC.  High
flux values for greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
were observed again for the sixth consecutive day.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, trending toward active conditions
by the end of the forecast period, due to the rotation of a
trans-equatorial coronal hole into geo-effective heliographic
longitudes.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to fall below the high value threshold within the
next one to two days.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    25/30/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 149
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  155/170/170
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  005/010-008/010-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01