Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast23 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 22/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2043Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3505 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 070
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 007/008-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/40