Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast10 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
10/0057Z from Region 1745 (N11E73). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May,
13 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 497 km/s at
09/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 601 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).


III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    40/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 125
Predicted   11 May-13 May 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        10 May 117


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  005/005-005/008-007/008


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25