Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 08/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2575 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 091
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 092/090/090
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 004/004-009/009-011/011

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/25