Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M4 event observed at
09/0029Z from Region 2158 (N15E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11
Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
478 km/s at 09/0344Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2115Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2033Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
08/2155Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (11 Sep) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (12 Sep).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 159
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/008-006/005-021/032

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/30
Minor Storm 01/05/45
Major-severe storm 01/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/79