Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at
09/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1054 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (11 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 094
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 090/090/095
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 007/008-009/010-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/40
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/50