Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 09/0638Z from Region 2882 (N17W01). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 416 km/s at 09/0938Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to major storm levels on day two (11 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on daythree (12 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 081
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-016/025-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 01/30/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/70/60