Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 9, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 809 km/s at 09/0154Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 57093 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 081
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 080/085/090
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 041/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 020/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 011/012-010/012-013/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/40
Minor Storm 10/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/60

SpaceRef staff editor.