Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 09/1702Z from Region 2891 (N16, L=211). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 08/2102Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1834Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 09/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2487 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 092
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 092/092/092
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10