Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s at 09/0025Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 09/1358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 820 pfu

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 090
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20