Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 08/2256Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/2153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 999 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 070
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 008/010-011/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/25