Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 08/2120Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/1547Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4753 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 069
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 015/020-014/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/45/45