Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 09/1944Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/1833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 552 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 080
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 009/008-011/014-020/026

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/35
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20