Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 9, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 09/1312Z from Region 2449 (S11E32). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 634 km/s at 09/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/1926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1448Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17885 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 108
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 015/020-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/25/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/30/20

SpaceRef staff editor.