Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 09/0105Z from Region 3004 (S13W85). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 09/0552Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and quiet levels on day three (12 May).

III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 117
Predicted 10 May-12 May 116/118/120
90 Day Mean 09 May 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20