Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 727 km/s at 08/2248Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1718Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 56756 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 May, 12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 070
Predicted   10 May-12 May 070/069/069
90 Day Mean        09 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  010/012-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    30/10/10