Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 09/0134Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at 09/0902Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1127Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 May), quiet to active levels on day two (11 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (12 May).
III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 155
Predicted 10 May-12 May 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 09 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 006/005-009/012-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
