Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 May 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
May 9, 2014
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
09/1501Z from Region 2058 (S14E57). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May,
12 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
405 km/s at 09/1647Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/2204Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 May, 12 May).

III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 152
Predicted 10 May-12 May 150/155/160
90 Day Mean 09 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 011/012-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/10

SpaceRef staff editor.