Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/2227Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 09/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5129 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (12 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 115
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 115/114/112
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 009/012-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/40/15