Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/1235Z from Region 2808 (N19E68). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 08/2324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1413 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 084
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/25