Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/1629Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0411Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2558 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (11 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 071
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  006/008-022/030-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/35
Minor Storm           01/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/35
Major-severe storm    10/55/40