Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/1629Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0411Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2558 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (11 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 071
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 006/008-022/030-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/30/35
Major-severe storm 10/55/40