Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 09/1842Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0120Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day (10 Mar) and quiet levels days two and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 068
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10