Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 09/0050Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/2247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28218 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 071
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  008/010-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20