Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/1250Z from Region 2519 (N06E76). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 09/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6761 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 097
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25