Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 09/1433Z from Region 2297 (S16E39). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 595 km/s at 08/2325Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 123
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
