Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/2341Z from Region 2002 (S19E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar,
12 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 405 km/s at
08/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 148 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 146
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 010/012-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/10