Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
09/1730Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 707 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 116
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10