Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/1159Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 08/2215Z. Total IMF reached 3 nT at 08/2227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 079
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 078/075/075
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/005-007/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10