Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 09/2051Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1800Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 072
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 072/072/070
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10