Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 09/0435Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/2136Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 068
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/008-008/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/40
Minor Storm 05/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/50