Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 337 km/s at 09/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/2310Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 361 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jun, 11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 074
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 074/075/076
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10