Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/1229Z from Region 2085 (S20W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 645 km/s at
08/2205Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0213Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/0721Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12
Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/15/20
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 161
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 029/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
COMMENT: Fredericksburg observed A-Index is estimated due to system
issues on site.