Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 June 2013

By SpaceRef Editor
June 9, 2013
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/0208Z from old Region 1762 (S28, L=129). There are currently 2
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 09/0727Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1450Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1446Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3829 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 096
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.