Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/1348Z from Region 3047 (S20W87). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 08/2110Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1251Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 09/1805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 137
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 138/140/135
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 006/008-013/008-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor Storm 01/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/50/55