Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2021

By SpaceRef Editor
July 9, 2021
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 09/1050Z from Region 2840 (N27, L=036). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 339 km/s at 09/1343Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 171 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 074
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 005/005-007/008-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/40

SpaceRef staff editor.