Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 09/0243Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1554Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0855Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 069
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 006/005-006/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/30