Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 09/0318Z from Region 2665 (S06E24). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 09/2100Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/1338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 09/0831Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 091
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  022/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  015/018-011/012-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           20/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/40/50