Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0337Z from Region 2381 (N14W11). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at 09/1636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1813Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1226 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jul), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (11 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

Class M    15/15/15

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           09 Jul 122

Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 120/120/120

90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  009/012-017/025-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/35/35

Minor Storm           15/25/15

Major-severe storm    01/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           30/30/25

Major-severe storm    40/55/50