Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0026Z from Region 2113 (N09E35). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk. No earthward directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at
09/1824Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1616Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/2115Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 198
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 190/180/170
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 007/007-007/007-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20