Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 539 km/s at 08/2332Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3899 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 107
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 005/005-005/005-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/35
Minor Storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/55