Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 09/0817Z from Region 2257 (N07W29). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at 09/0309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 151
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 155/160/170
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 010/010-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
